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AY2007 發表於 2019-5-21 15:23:50 | 顯示全部樓層 |閱讀模式
發展自己的軟件晶片已經是死任務. 不是選項.

https://www.bastillepost.com/hongkong/article/4417978-%E5%BD%AD%E5%8D%9A%EF%BC%9A%E7%A7%91%E6%8A%80%E5%86%B7%E6%88%B0%E9%96%8B%E5%A7%8B-%E8%B4%8F%E5%AE%B6%E6%98%AF%E6%9C%80%E8%83%BD%E6%8D%B1%E6%89%93%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%80%E6%96%B9

彭博:科技冷戰開始 贏家是最能捱打的一方

美國下令封殺華為,晶片商英特爾(Intel)、高通(Qualcomm)、賽靈思(Xilinx)及博通(Broadcom)向員工指示,暫停向華為供應晶片,直至另行通告,而事實上,這些公司的管理層,仍須向華府查詢,搞清楚甚麼可以賣給華為,甚麼不可以,因此,他們現在的全面禁止,只是為穩陣計,一刀切全部不與華為交易。
相同情況在制裁中興通訊(763)時發生,美國企業在搞清楚甚麼可以付運、甚麼不可時,先全面停止付運。彭博有一篇報道,具體總結了華為的危險和機遇。

彭博報道,美國切斷供應零件的行動,早在華為意料之內,華為有3個月零件存貨,雖然不算多,但這反映華為未對這可能出現的威脅掉以輕心,而是嚴陣以待。
有人希望,封殺華為事件只是中美貿易戰的一部份,隨著談判展開,事情將獲得解決,華為和中國領導人並沒有這樣想,對他們來說,即使是最短暫的禁運,也是中國不能再依賴外國的證明。
估計中國將增加一倍力度,發展本身的智能手機作業系統、設計自己的晶片、發展自己的半導體技術、及推行自己的科技標準,封殺只會加速數碼鐵幕的形成,把地球分兩個截然不同、完全分隔的科技半球。
情況可能會變成如此: 中國版本的Android,姑且稱之為Chandroid,與Google不能互通,中國製造的晶片,固然不如高通和賽靈思的晶片,以往由於有西方產品供應,所以中國自行研發晶片失敗也無關係,但現在研發失敗將不再是中國領導人的選項。
中國領導層將加大對有關行業的補貼,以確保技術不會落後於人,過程中大部份的金錢會浪費掉,而經過一段時間,中國的國家資助,將足夠令行業克服挑戰,推出可行的產品,雖然或不如美國產品。而美國不可能對其國內行業給予等量的津貼。
彭博稱,美國的科技產品仍高一線,但這情況不會永遠持續,因華為在5G技術發展先走一步。所以,科技冷戰已經開始,贏家不一定是最打得的一方,而是最能捱打、忍受長期虧蝕之痛的一方。

華為.jpg

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參與人數 1威望 +10 收起 理由
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andrewyuen 發表於 2019-5-22 16:15:06 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
leicafans 發表於 2019-5-22 03:34 PM
中國去年八百萬大學畢業生,其中有十分一係IT,即係有八十萬,竟然有人夠 ...

中國只要搞得起教育,學生唔吸毒唔食草,畢業禮唔舉牌唔舉傘,迎新會唔唱喊歌,一定領先世界
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發表於 2019-5-23 14:23:44 | 顯示全部樓層
中國是唯一有齊全部產業的國家,有些科技領先全球,亦有一些短板,非能力不及,緩急問題,要追或超越並不難。
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肥pooh 發表於 2019-5-23 14:05:18 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
差極都夠佢响防空驚報
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carbon 發表於 2019-5-23 13:55:35 | 顯示全部樓層
leicafans 發表於 2019-5-23 01:08 PM
有人話:金仔大古洞用陀螺儀唔準……美國佬話:唔準先至驚……

佢冇 laser, 重用緊大飛輪, bearing 鋼水又唔掂...,

but 差又如何,  一定飛到 USA,
又果 use gps, 飛 washington 會變 飛 平壤 ga wor..!

.
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carbon 發表於 2019-5-23 13:52:16 | 顯示全部樓層
買左俾人點收, 最多冇新的 sell .

.
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leicafans 發表於 2019-5-23 13:30:29 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
蘋果早年都唔用ARM架構出A7,唔用ARM冇乜大不鳥
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leicafans 發表於 2019-5-23 13:28:56 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
連ARM架構唔俾用都出埋鳥,美國佬冇牌出鳥……
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發表於 2019-5-23 13:27:16 | 顯示全部樓層
虱子多了不癢,老尾仲有咩招未出呢?好似出晒了!
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hiker 發表於 2019-5-23 13:16:25 | 顯示全部樓層
唔準係好得人驚.....
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leicafans 發表於 2019-5-23 13:15:27 | 顯示全部樓層
唔準點截?仲有……佢打L.A.,可能射左去紐約……
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leicafans 發表於 2019-5-23 13:08:07 | 顯示全部樓層
有人話:金仔大古洞用陀螺儀唔準……美國佬話:唔準先至驚……

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佢冇 laser, 重用緊大飛輪, bearing 鋼水又唔掂..., but 差又如何, 一定飛到 USA, 又果 use gps, 飛 washington 會變 飛 平壤 ga wor..! .  詳情 回復 發表於 2019-5-23 01:55 PM
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carbon 發表於 2019-5-23 12:56:29 | 顯示全部樓層
ken l 發表於 2019-5-23 12:05 PM
你搞清楚 gyro 同 gps 二者分別先啦

大古隆金仔信 gyro...!
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ken l 發表於 2019-5-23 12:05:26 | 顯示全部樓層
carbon 發表於 2019-5-23 11:25 AM
鉈鏍比 gps 可靠, 洲際飛彈, 飛歪100miles still no problem.

.

你搞清楚 gyro 同 gps 二者分別先啦

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大古隆金仔信 gyro...!  詳情 回復 發表於 2019-5-23 12:56 PM
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carbon 發表於 2019-5-23 11:27:17 | 顯示全部樓層
ken l 發表於 2019-5-22 04:29 PM
睇情況 美國有可能封殺中國留學嘅學生,唔收中國人入讀大學

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carbon 發表於 2019-5-23 11:25:36 | 顯示全部樓層
ken l 發表於 2019-5-22 04:02 PM
舉頭望下個天多左幾粒星星,單中國都有幾百粒,係人造衛唔係北極星,宜家戰� ...

鉈鏍比 gps 可靠, 洲際飛彈, 飛歪100miles still no problem.

.


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你搞清楚 gyro 同 gps 二者分別先啦  詳情 回復 發表於 2019-5-23 12:05 PM
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ppnuts 發表於 2019-5-22 22:09:17 | 顯示全部樓層
edison000 發表於 2019-5-22 10:35 AM
美國佬實在有太多領域都領先太多
科技只係一部份。 國家資助? 呢個無底 ...

找到這篇文章,太長,唔想譯,但頗易明,內裡有關科研問題似乎與你的意見大不同。

New Eastern Outlook

US Already at War with China and Russia: The Rest of Us Are Collateral Damage
01.03.2019 Author: James ONeill

At the end of World War 2 the United States was the strongest economy and military force on the planet. It used that position to impose itself upon the world for the next 60 years.  Potential threats to that hegemony were crushed, through persuasion, economic blackmail via the dominant position of the US dollar, regime change of recalcitrant governments, and in many cases invasions and occupations.  Tens of millions died and social structures were devastated.

The lack of any serious challenger during those decades bred a mentality of exceptionalism: that the ordinary rules of civilised conduct did not apply; that their way was the only acceptable way; and that their hegemonic monopoly would last forever.

Despite the constant propaganda, the Soviet Union was never a serious threat, and China was too preoccupied with internal convulsions to have much influence beyond its own national borders or those countries immediately adjoining.

The past two decades however, have seen significant changes, the pace of which is accelerating.  After the Yeltsin era of the 1990s, Russia began a steady rejuvenation off its economy and political status.  China began its true Great Leap Forward following the reform and opening up of its economy and society under Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s.  The results are unparalleled in modern history. Per capita income in China is 25 times what it was when Deng’s reforms began. Poverty levels, as measured by the World Bank have shrunk from more than 90 percent of the population in 1978 to less than 2 percent today.

China’s GDP growth rate has been sustained at a level about three times the rate of most developed economies, and has done so for several decades. On a parity purchasing power basis, China is now the world’s largest economy, and that superior economic position will continue and grow for the foreseeable future.

Not the least of the reasons for China’s dynamic growth is their investment in education and in particular science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM).  About one quarter of all STEM workers in the world today are Chinese. The expectation is that by 2025 (a key date in Chinese planning) there will be more Chinese STEM workers than in the whole of the OECD combined.

Although on a vastly smaller scale, Russia has similarly invested heavily in promoting educational excellence in STEM subjects.  The contrast with the US could not be greater.  Since 2001 the US has spent approximately $6 trillion in foreign wars, while deferring about $4 trillion in necessary infrastructure expenditure.

The military industrial complex has flourished, while the rest of the US has not.  According to UN statistics, the US is now 42nd in the world in life expectancy. This is a very sensitive indicator pointing to a range of deficiencies in education, health care, nutritional standards and social infrastructure.

Vast sums are required each year to maintain a network of more than 800 military bases around the world. This empire of bases is needed to maintain control over vassal states and “contain” both Russia and China.  Neither of those countries, massive propaganda notwithstanding , has shown the least interest in expanding beyond its existing borders.

Both Russia and China have however, despite military budgets a fraction of US levels, developed a range of high tech weaponry that is significantly superior to that of the US and its allies.  Putin’s revelations in his March 2018 speech to the Russian Federal Assembly about Russia’s hypersonic weapons capabilities was a profound shock to the US establishment. After initial denials, they acknowledged the truth of Putin’s claims and immediately sought even greater military funding in an effort to catch up. That expenditure will come at the expense of investment in civilian infrastructure, leading to a further deterioration in the facilities for ordinary people.

There is very good reason to believe that China’s military capabilities, while not up to Russian standards yet, are nonetheless formidable in their own right.  The Dong Feng missile series for example, gives China both a defensive and offensive capability that is unmatched by the Americans.

That is the context in which the present situation of sanctions, trade wars and other forms of warfare needs to be assessed.

The Trump administration is in fact waging war on both China and Russia. Because it does not (yet) involve a shooting war that does not make it any less a war.  That war takes many forms.

In Russia’s case there are extensive sanctions applied to the Russian government, individuals and companies. It is a measure of American disregard for international law (never strong at the best of times) that these sanctions are illegal. They manifestly serve a series of geopolitical goals. Nord Stream 2 is just one example.  Secretary of State Pompeo was recently in Europe, as was Vice President Pence, threatening sanctions on European countries and companies that co-operated in the Nord Stream project.  The Americans would rather that European reliance was upon the much more expensive American LNG.

US politicians and media are constantly claiming “Russian interference “ in the internal affairs of the US and other western nations.   American pressure over Nord Stream 2, or threatening European nations and organisations for co-operating with Iran over the latter’s compliance with the JCPOA (unlike the Americans who have unilaterally withdrawn from that agreement) is blatant interference in the affairs of sovereign nations.  It is an irony totally lost on the Americans and their acolytes.

The “war” against China takes many forms, of which the so-called trade war is only one obvious example. The tariffs imposed or threatened on China’s exports harm not only the Americans, but world trade generally.

Other forms of warfare include cyber warfare, military exercises in proximity to Chinese territory, 400 military bases directed at China as part of the “containment “ strategy, and a constant barrage of propaganda about alleged Chinese spying, intellectual property theft, and ‘debt traps’ for poor nations that accept Chinese development assistance.

That none of these allegations withstand serious scrutiny is not the point. They are part of a determined policy of war to try and isolate China, undermine its development and prevent it from ever challenging America’s hegemony in every continent and region of the world. One needs to look no further than the US intelligence community’s 2019 World Threat Assessment.

That’s assessment concludes that China is using the Belt and Road Initiative to extend China’s global, economic and political reach to “diminish US influence.” To counter that challenge, the US must, according to its National Security Strategy, “prevent enemy success” and “protect our interests.” The officially designated enemies are Russia and China. It is clear that there are no limits on the forms this “protection” will take.

The trade war that the US is currently engaged in against China has in reality little to do with the trade imbalance between the two countries. As Michael Klare points out quoting leaked documents, the objective of the trade war is to sabotage the Made in China 2025 program. The objective of this Chinese program is to develop world-leading excellence in a range of technical fields.  The American objective in the current trade talks is to force China to accept a subservient role to American wishes in all fields into the future.   It is delusional to think that the Chinese would ever accept such a status, let alone reduce or diminish their own drive for excellence and leadership.

The campaign against Huawei is but one facet of the wider American strategy. Huawei is accused of being an agent of the Chinese government, and its 5G technology, in which it leads the world, is really, the Americans and other allege, a vehicle for China to spy on the world.

Again, the accusers here have had an irony bypass.  At least since the Echelon project (which began in the late 1960s) the Americans and their Five Eyes allies (Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK) have been intercepting private and government communications around the world. The revelations of Edward Snowden provided further confirmation of wholesale electronic spying by the US National Security Agency.

The Five Eyes partners each monitor a section of the world including from such places as Menwith Hill in Yorkshire (UK), Pine Gap in Australia, Waihopai in New Zealand’s South Island, and Buckley Air Force Base in Colorado (US). Modern technology has simply expanded the scale and the scope of this electronic spying.

Much of that spying is aimed at gaining a commercial advantage for US companies. This is nothing new. The Americans were engaged in industrial espionage against the British in the 19th century at a time when Britain was a leading industrial power. Intellectual property theft is not a recent invention.

China now leads the world in patent applications, with 1.38 million such applications in 2017, compared to just under 607,000 in the US. If any country is more likely to be the victim of intellectual property theft, it is the Chinese. There is already evidence that one of the US reactions to the revelations of Russian missile superiority was to increase their efforts to steal Russian intellectual property in that area.

The reaction of the majority of the world’s countries to this US sourced offensive against Russia and China indicates that it is unlikely to succeed. One reason for the greater willingness of countries to defy American hegemonic demands is the increasing realisation that US bullying is built upon a financial structure that is on the verge of collapse.

According to the Financial Times, the US will need to sell $12 trillion of bonds over the coming decade.  Both China and Russia have stopped buying US Treasury bonds, and other major purchasers are reducing both their holdings and their willingness to trade in dollars.  The US will either need to find alternative buyers (unlikely) or reduce its expenditure (even more unlikely). The extent to which nations cease to use the dollar as the medium of trade will accelerate the demise of America’s capacity to dominate.

Trump has recently announced a commitment to upgrade military expenditure, already at record levels, and to compete with China in the 5G market.  This is pie in the sky thinking. The US does not have the present capacity to compete with the Chinese or the Russians, as the huge gap in hypersonic missile technology makes abundantly clear.

It is this inability to compete that is driving the contemporary warfare of tariff wars, hybrid wars, sanctions, bullying and economic sabotage. At best this warfare will have a delaying effect on the inevitable continuing rise of China, which is after all no more than the restoration of an historical position interrupted by five centuries of European colonial domination. At worst, as seen from US withdrawal from multiple treaty obligations, symptomatic of a wider disregard for the rights and responsibilities of the community of nations, it will lead to actual warfare based on the deluded belief that their hegemony of the post war years can be maintained indefinitely.

James O’Neill, an Australian-based Barrister at Law and geopolitical analyst, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Main page Scroll to top
E-mail:        info@journal-neo.org
Electronic analytical journal New Eastern Outlook 2010-2019
Republishing of the articles is welcomed with reference to NEO.
The views of the authors do not necessarily coincide with the opinion of the editorial board.
m.journal-neo.org

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參與人數 1威望 +2 收起 理由
wch321 + 2 很有深度和見解的好文,謝謝!

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ken l 發表於 2019-5-22 16:29:17 | 顯示全部樓層
睇情況 美國有可能封殺中國留學嘅學生,唔收中國人入讀大學
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ken l 發表於 2019-5-22 16:02:17 | 顯示全部樓層
舉頭望下個天多左幾粒星星,單中國都有幾百粒,係人造衛唔係北極星,宜家戰爭冇左衛星 肯定輸硬,中國領導其實睇得好遠,知道一但開戰,美國佬會屏閉gps 所有導彈變左盲頭烏蠅,所以一定要有自己的衛星導航系統,再過多幾年可以覆蓋整個地球,你話中國有冇人材.所以只能說中國仍落後於美國好快就超越美國, 20年左右吧

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鉈鏍比 gps 可靠, 洲際飛彈, 飛歪100miles still no problem. .  詳情 回復 發表於 2019-5-23 11:25 AM
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wch321 發表於 2019-5-22 15:54:07 | 顯示全部樓層
其實我有個疑問,除左科技 (5G, AI等都唔係喎),美國仲有咩太多領域係領先中國太多?

教育??金融???醫療???!
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